Largest earthquake preparedness drill in U.S. history takes place this week

On Thursday, November 13, 2009 at exactly 10 am PST, a simulated magnitude 7.8 earthquake will occur along the San Andreas Fault in Southern California. An earthquake preparedness drill with over 5 million registered participants will allow the numerous agencies in charge of safety and infrastructure, as well as the general public to get a sense of what could happen if a real event like this occurred. The event is called the Great California Shakeout (http://www.shakeout.org/).

The predicted ground shaking and ruptures were used by building engineers, infrastructure operators (water, power, transportation, data), and social scientists to estimate the effects on Southern California's 20 million plus population. The ShakeOut Scenario estimates this earthquake with several minutes of strong ground motion throughout southern California will cause some 2,000 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and other losses, and severe, long-lasting disruption. More information about the scenario is available here: http://www.shakeout.org/scenario/.

The model earthquake was designed and simulated using state of the art understanding of the physics of earthquakes and seismic wave propagation, and the crustal structure of southern California. It is representative of what we know has happened many times in the past. ASU scientists Ramón Arrowsmith and current and former graduate students have studied these events and their prehistoric record along the San Andreas Fault. They are members of the Southern California Earthquake Center-the scientific organization which has contributed significantly to the science behind Shakeout.

An earthquake like this would have important implications for Arizonans. Firstly, it would probably be felt lightly to strongly throughout western and central Arizona. Secondly, the rupture will start along the Salton Sea near Bombay Beach and rupture northwest, past Indio into and through the San Bernardino Mountains. Thus, it will likely sever or damage for days or longer most physical connections to Southwestern California from Arizona. These include: aqueducts, Interstate Highways 10 and 15, rail lines, fiber optic communication lines, oil and gas pipelines, and electrical transmission lines. The damage will be greatest for these connections near Indio and in the San Gorgonio Pass. Thirdly, and most importantly, it will be a regional catastrophe which will significantly disrupt business and social connections. Arizonans will be called on to help our friends and relatives there.